Poll Shows Jolley, Turner In Hunt For CD5 Race
The following memo was released earlier this evening.
THE TARRANCE GROUP
To: Interested Parties
From: Ed Goeas, Brian Nienaber
Re: Observations on the Republican primary election in the 5th Congressional District
➢ This week The Daily Caller featured a news story about internal polling for the Turner campaign, which indicated that this election is a two man race between Jolley and Turner with Jolley in the lead. This poll also found that Jolley and Turner are the two best known candidates.
➢ This story confirmed our own internal polling from the same time period that also found Jolley leading and found Jolley and Turner to be the two strongest candidates.
➢ It remains our strong belief that this primary election will ultimately be a two man race between Jolley and Turner. Both of them already possess the most important quality needed to win a competitive, multi-candidate primary election – strong name identification.
➢ Absent a significant paid media effort, it will be impossible for the other candidates in this race to reach the level of awareness and the level of voter goodwill that Jolley and Turner already enjoy.
➢ In addition, while the other candidate have previously represented part of this district at the state or local level or currently serve as a statewide elected board member, only Jolley and Turner serve as current state representatives for voters in a portion of the 5th Congressional District.
➢ Many voters, even highly energized ones like Republican primary voters, have short memories. These short memories blunt most of the advantage that a former local officeholder might hold.
➢ In sum, multicandidate primary races can often be unpredictable. However, the most valuable advantages any primary candidate can have are a strong level of name identification and being a current incumbent, even if it is for only a portion of the district.
➢ There are only two candidates in this primary election with both of these advantages – Clark Jolley and Mike Turner. That is why we strongly believe that this race will be a two man race between these two candidates.