National Review: What OK’s Senate Primary Tells Us About Why Cantor Lost
What Oklahoma’s Senate Primary Tells Us About Why Eric Cantor Lost
By Henry Olsen, NRO
House majority leader Eric Cantor’s defeat also caught pundits off guard. Here was a “tea party versus establishment” race, but one in which no major tea-party group or politician supported the challenger. How could Cantor have lost to a political nobody? Pundits leaped into action, however, contending that Cantor lost because of a poor campaign, his support for some immigration reform, and his opponent’s endorsement by radio personality Laura Ingraham, among other explanations.
So what do these reactions to two very different races have in common? One simple fact: They have no data to back them up.
In the absence of lots of polling data, most pundits are rudderless when navigating the seas of post-election analysis. And when the polling is wildly off, as it was in the Cantor race, they find it even harder to explain what happened before their very eyes.
That wouldn’t happen if they just listened to Yogi Berra. “You can observe a lot just by watching,” the Yankee great said, and so it is with elections. Election results themselves can often give strong clues as to why a campaign turned out the way it did.