Speculation Builds Around Potential 2014 Primary Races

The potential was there. For several months speculation has been building about Dr. Tom Coburn’s future in the US Senate. And now that the unthinkable has happened and our junior Senator has decided to return to Muskogee, the political landscape is trembling.

We’ve set out to compile a list, although far from comprehensive, it’s a start.

Let’s look at the top of the ticket: US Senate. A smaller number of names make this list. This is the big enchilada, the place where the big boys play.

The most talked about names in the field are 5th District Congressman James Lankford and Attorney General Scott Pruitt.(Pruitt announced late Sunday he would not run for the Senate.) NewsOK is reporting Lankford’s announcement will come early this week. But as other names emerge, we have to think these remain at the top of the heap. Included in that speculation: Former Governor Frank Keating, Lieutenant Gov. Todd Lamb, House Speaker TW Shannon, First District Congressman Jim Bridenstine (Erick Erickson seems to like the idea,) as well as political veterans  Congressmen Tom Cole (Cole announced Sunday he was out as well,) and Frank Lucas. But let’s not forget the Democrats who would consider this seat. While OK remains a very red state, several candidates could line up on the left as well. Among them former first lady Kim Henry or her husband former Gov. Brad Henry could be statewide contenders. And don’t rule out retired 2nd district Congressman Dan Boren, he still has $500K in the bank.

If these prognostications are true, then the ground shakes harder as several seats open for a June primary.

And while Lankford has proven  his conservative credentials, a second Congressional primary in the OKC Metro in 4 years means several candidates are likely to consider a run. By all accounts Corporation Commissioner Patrice Douglas will make a run for the likely open seat. The former Edmond Mayor would be a formidable opponent but the same can be said about possible contender Labor Commissioner Mark Costello.  We all know how the conservative, Mr. “Mello Yellow” marches to the beat of his own drummer, has cut spending at DOL and could keep the race very interesting. Other possible names mentioned include Lt. Governor Todd Lamb, State Senators Clark Jolley and David Holt and former Senate candidate and tea party favorite Paul Blair could consider it. One more interesting candidate is Dr. Doug Beall. The Edmond Radiologist has been a fierce opponent of ObamaCare and could definitely prove to be a well-financed candidate.

If Bridenstine makes the jump that would make for a second contentious primary in the Tulsa area in 24 months. Those considering a run include Pastor and State Senator Rick Brinkley. “Pastor Rick”  has a big reach on social media with most posts garnering several hundred ‘likes.’ South Tulsa State Senator Dan Newberry is likely being encouraged to look at the primary and would make the race interesting among activists. Other candidates include Tulsa City Councilor GT Bynum and Tulsa Energy Exec and former Councilor Cason Carter could be a well-funded challenger. Tulsa DA Tim Harris recently announced his retirement and was spotted at the Tulsa Republican Club lunch where Lankford spoke this week.

Lastly, Douglas’ Corporation Commission seat, an important position in this energy-rich state will also likely have a primary this spring. Senate Pro-Tem Brian Bingman and OK House Rep. Colby Schwartz are being encouraged to run. Former OKGOP Chair and current RNC operative Matt Pinnell is also being encouraged to run for the job.

Regardless of the speculation you see here, timing can prove to be everything. The sooner, the better as activists, consultants and major donors are lining up behind candidates as they get the calls from the campaigns and the candidates this weekend.

Stay tuned to The Okie for everything you need to know about the 2014 elections.